Abstract
Modeling tools that can demonstrate possible consequences of strategies designed to operationalize ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) should be able to address tradeoffs over a wide suite of considerations representing the scope of marine management objectives. Coupled ecological-economic modeling, where models for ecological and economic subsystems are linked through their inputs and outputs, allows for quantification of such tradeoffs. Here, we link the harvest output from fishery management scenarios implemented in an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis) to an input-output regional economic model for the Northeast US to calculate changes in socio-economic indicators, including the consequences of management action for regional sales, wages, and employment. We implement three simple scenarios (maintain, decrease, or increase current fishing effort), and compare model-projected values for systematic and sector-specific indicators. Systematic indicators revealed different ecological and economic outcomes, with large ecological responses and clear tradeoffs among the catch and biomass of species groups. Economic indicators for the region responded similarly to fishery yield, however changes in total sales did not match those in landed catch. Under increased fishing effort, a lower proportional increase in sales relative to total landed catch arose due to increased yield from lower value species groups. Average fisheries income changed little among scenarios, but was highest when effort was maintained at current levels, likely a reflection of fleet and catch stability. Our results serve to demonstrate that consequences of management may be felt disproportionately among species through the region and across different fisheries sectors. With our coupled modeling approach of passing Atlantis ecosystem model outputs to an input-output economic model, we were able to assess effects of fisheries management across a broader suite of indicators that have relevance for policymakers across multiple objectives.
Highlights
The need for ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is well established, with a focus on managing the indirect effects of fishing across a broad set of ecological and societal factors under both tactical and strategic decision-making
Three fisheries management scenarios were considered in Atlantis to evaluate the effects of changes in landings on the regional economy: (1) a base scenario of fishing effort for 1995–2014 fixed at levels consistent with observed data for the Northeast United States from 1995–2004, (2) a reduced effort scenario where the fishing effort for 1995–2014 was halved for all Atlantis fleets compared to the base scenario values, and (3) an increased effort scenario where fishing effort for 1995– 2014 was twice that in the base scenario
A large biological response was seen under the reduced effort scenario, with increases in biomass for many species groups associated with up to 50% reductions in the catch of many fish and invertebrate groups (Figure 2)
Summary
The need for ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is well established, with a focus on managing the indirect effects of fishing across a broad set of ecological and societal factors under both tactical and strategic decision-making. Integrated economic-ecological frameworks (e.g., Arrow et al, 1995) that extend the bioeconomic approach and include models for both human economies and ecosystem dynamics offer the potential to provide critically required decision support when assessing the value of marine ecosystems (Jin et al, 2012) Some of these modeling tools have begun to be used in a management strategy evaluation (MSE; Bunnefeld et al, 2011) framework to address tradeoffs among management objectives in an ecosystem context (e.g., McDonald et al, 2008; Plagányi et al, 2013; Fulton et al, 2014). Kaplan and Leonard (2012) coupled an Atlantis model for the California Current ecosystem to a regional economic model for the United States west coast to illustrate the direct and indirect effects of alternative groundfish management strategies This analysis extended many typical fisheries bioeconomic modeling approaches by considering industry sectors that support or are influenced by changes in fishery production, such as industry suppliers, employment, or even household spending. We wanted to quantify the effects of changes in fishing fleet sector landings associated with these effort changes on the regional economy
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