Abstract
This study measures regional impacts of adaptation to climate change for the Paris Agreement under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios. We develop a global economic model with adaptation to climate change. Simulated results indicate that: 1) Asian and African adaptation costs exceed more than one percent of GDP in the year 2100 under the business as usual scenario; 2) adaptation costs under the 2.0°C target are higher in Asia and Africa than other regions; and 3) adaptation costs amount to one percent of GDP in Japan, EU and Latin America under the 1.5°C target scenario by adaptation.
Highlights
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reviewed many integrated assessment models (IAMs) to evaluate the impacts of climate change policies (IPCC [1])
Simulated results indicate that: 1) Asian and African adaptation costs exceed more than one percent of GDP in the year 2100 under the business as usual scenario; 2) adaptation costs under the 2.0 ̊C target are higher in Asia and Africa than other regions; and 3) adaptation costs amount to one percent of GDP in Japan, EU and Latin America under the 1.5 ̊C target scenario by adaptation
Many researchers have begun to measure the impacts of mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the 1.5 ̊C and/or 2 ̊C target in the Paris Agreement using IAMs, there are few studies focusing on adaptation under the Paris Agreement
Summary
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reviewed many integrated assessment models (IAMs) to evaluate the impacts of climate change policies (IPCC [1]). Latest IAMs research on climate change applies two scenarios for calculating impacts of climate change: Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The SSPs consist of five socio-economic scenarios with mitigation and adaptation to climate change and include GDP, population and GHG emissions scenarios. We measure regional impacts of adaptation to climate change for the Paris Agreement under the SSPs and RCPs combination scenarios using a global economic model in which each region has multiple economic sectors. We simulate EMEDA to obtain optimal adaptation levels and economic impacts of climate change under the SSP-RCP combination scenarios for the 2.0 ̊C target. AD-DICE (de Bruin et al [5]) was developed as a one-region world economic model in which the total costs of climate change are decomposed into adaptation costs and residual costs. Γ1,r is reduced (increased) by 30% in SSP1 (SSP3) compared to SSP2
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