Econometric Modeling of the Maternity Capital Factor Effect on the Birth Rate in the Region

Abstract

The article is devoted to assessment and modeling the maternity capital factor effect on the birth rate in one of the Russian Federation regions- the Udmurt Republic. The information base for the research is official the statistical data on a set of demographic indicators within the region for the period of 1990-2021. A structural-dynamic analysis of the birth rate is carried out. An indicator reflecting the number of births per 1,000 people of the population, as well as per 1,000 women of childbearing age, is calculated and analyzed for the period under review. Curves of birth distribution coefficients for the social and economic system of the Udmurt Republic by the mother age in the context of the territory are plotted. It has been established that in the region there are significant differences in birth rates in urban and rural areas. Econometric modeling is carried out to identify the relationship between the birth rate and the maternity capital factor. Econometric models of time series are constructed with the introduction of a fictitious binary variable, taking the values 0 - before the introduction of maternity capital, 1 - after the introduction of maternity capital. The identification of model parameters and statistical verification of the significance of the coefficient of the dummy variable are performed. The study is conducted both in the division by the type of settlement, and in the division by mothers’ age. It was found that maternity capital increases the average annual birth rate in urban areas by 15.2 %, and in rural areas - by 16.5%. Econometric modeling results disaggregated by maternal age show an increase in the number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age. Before the introduction of maternity capital, there were on average 36 children per 1,000 women of childbearing age in the UR, while after the introduction - 43 children.