Econometric modeling of the influence of economic factors on the volume of construction: Russian impact

Abstract

The considerable turbulence of the Russian economy has a restraining effect on the development of systemically important types of economic activity, with no exception being construction, in which, starting in 2015, there has been a decline. In this regard, we believe that the assessment of the causes of the emerging trend is an urgent task to be solved in the framework of economic science. The purpose of the paper is to quantify the impact of the main economic factors on the dynamics of the volume of work performed in the construction industry in Russia. Such research methods were used: analysis, synthesis, comparisons, graphical, tabular, correlation and regression analysis. Sources of information were datas from the Federal State Statistics service of the Russian Federation. Results of the research: analysis of the main characteristics of construction in the Russian Federation showed their growth in 2017 compared to 2002, while the leading positions are occupied by entities that are part of the Central Federal District, Volga Federal District and South Federal District; assessment of the impact of economic factors on the output of construction works showed a strong impact of the number of people employed in the industry and investment in buildings and structures; econometric modeling of the level of work performed in construction and a forecast for 2018-2020 shows that while maintaining the current conditions, the industry will grow in minor topics. The patterns of development of the industry that we identified may be useful to researchers in the field of construction economics and the housing market, as well as to government officials for shaping the development strategy for construction in the Russian Federation.