Ecological Theories and Spatial Decision Making of Motor Vehicle Theft (MVT) Offenders in Nigeria

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study examined patterns of motor vehicle theft (MVT) in Lagos using routine activity, social disorganization, and Charnov's prey selection models. Findings showed that the rate of auto theft is determined by opportunity, the flow of cars, the level of guardianship and social disorganization factors. Furthermore, the distribution of thefts across car model was very uneven as some cars models were stolen at much higher rates than the others. Charnov's prey selection model suggests that such uneven targeting should be related to variation in the quantity, expected payoffs, and handling costs associated with different car models. Having exploited the quantity, findings confirmed that differences in quantity of car models explained some of the thefts. A comparison of theft and quantity of different car models rank order showed a significant positive relationship (r = 0.617, p <.00). This study found some support for social disorganization theory and routine activity theory as a number of the expected relationships between offenders' characteristics, location variables, and MVT were observed. The study also found support for Charnov's prey selection model as the most common cars on the street of Lagos were also the most stolen.