El robo de vehículos y su relación espacial con el contexto sociodemográfico en tres delegaciones centrales de la Ciudad de México (2010)

Abstract

AbstractThis paper analyzes the spatial patterns of motor vehicle theft crimes in Mexico City. The largest metropolitan áreas in Latin-America are witnessing a sharp escalation of urban violence and the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City is not the exception. In the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City the motor vehicle theft is one of the crimes that have higher arrest and criminal warrants with 40 336 in average during the 1995 to 2007 period. In 2010 motors vehicle theft reached 44 446 criminal warrants, representing the 39% of all criminal warrants in the city. However, such crime does not show a homogenous spatial pattern but shows a high spatial concentration in some delegations of Mexico City such as Benito Juárez, Coyoacán and Cuauhtémoc. In this context, the research question is: Does exists spatial relationship between concentration of motor vehicle theft and environmental factors?. The theoretical background is provided by the social disorganization theory, the routine activities and crime patterns. Both theories explain criminal spatial variation as responses to environmental conditions. The causal mechanism underlying both theories is that individuals make decisions based on the aggregated behavior around them. Individuals are constantly exposed to social stimuli, and they make use of the information derived from the environment (e.g. behavioral contagion).The data includes arrests and criminal warrants of motor vehicle theft provided by the General Office of Justice of the Federal District (PGJDF, 2010) and the rest of socioeconomic variables were provided by the Housing and Population Census, 2010, all of them at census tract level. The methodology used includes regional analysis techniques such as location quotient, múltiple regression analysis and exploratory spatial data analysis ESDA in specific the Morán Indice. This is performed within reasonable limits of data reliability, sampling error, and in disconnection from theoretical postulates. The results of the múltiple regression identify variables such as none residential land use, population density, female-headed households, single and concentration of young population influence motor vehicle theft crimes. These findings allow us to design public security polices focused in places where could implement programs oriented to the situational prevention of the crime and the social prevention of crime. Besides, the results provide findings for urban planning and social development policies with police strategies.