Ecological security assessment of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration based on an adapted ecological footprint model

Abstract

The acceleration of urbanization and industrialization has led to new ecological security (ES) risks for urban agglomerations in developing countries. The level of ES with the goal of improving adaptive capacity is becoming the basis for space demand regulation and coordinated development of ecological economy. In relation to the actual socio-economic development of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration (GPUA), three sub-accounts covering domestic water, production water and eco-environment water were added to the adapted ecological footprint model to reflect the underestimated water demand in the GPUA. Based on an analysis of the per capita ecological deficit and the dynamic changes in each account in the GPUA from 2005 to 2017, the ecological pressure index and eco-economic coordination index were used to evaluate the ES level of GPUA, and the footprint depth and footprint size were used to evaluate trends in the state of ES. The results show that (1) the GPUA water resource account is the second largest contribution account to the ecological footprint; (2) the GPUA has been at the 6th ES level, “completely unsafe”, since 2005; and (3) based on the three-dimensional ecological footprint, the GPUA needs 4.76 times current area to meet its resource consumption level, indicating that ecological insecurity levels will not improve. Therefore, improving the water resources management system, controlling the sources of atmospheric pollution, and strengthening the zoning of functional lands are recommended. Quantitatively analysing the relationships among the ES level, various resources environmental and economic activities provides a scientific basis for improving the resilience level of urban agglomerations in response to ecological changes.