ECOLOGICAL RESOURCES OF BOREAL FORESTS IN ABSORPTION OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND IN ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL WARMING (TO THE PARIS AGREEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE)

Abstract

On the example of the forests of the Oka basin, an experiment was carried out to numerically solve the dual task set by the Paris (2015) Agreement on climate change: to assess the absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere by forest communities under current global warming and their adaptation to climate change. With the help of empirical-statistical modeling, the mechanisms of forest cover regulation of the carbon cycle are revealed, with the effect of mitigating the predicted warming. Assessments of the adaptive potential of forests and its role in carbon adsorption and conservation have been carried out. The proposed index of elastic-plastic functional stability of forest ecosystems was used as an indicator of adaptation. The role of forest sustainability as a direct environmental factor in the absorption of greenhouse gases has been statistically established. An unambiguous picture of a significant increase in the ecological resources of boreal and nemoral forests has been obtained – their adsorption capacity with an increase in adaptive potential. It has been established that during the predicted 100-year period, the overall elastic-plastic stability of forest formations in the region should increase, especially at the current rate of global warming. Due to this, a significant increase in the ability of boreal and, to a lesser extent, nemoral forests to absorb greenhouse gases should also be expected. The obtained results of regional predictive modeling demonstrate the effectiveness of the coupled study of the adsorption capacity of forest biomes and their adaptation to a changing climate.