Ecological Resources of Boreal Forests for Greenhouse Gas Absorption and in Adaptation to Global Warming (for the Paris Climate Change Agreement)

Abstract

The forests of the Oka basin were used as an example in an experiment to solve numerically the dual-purpose task set by the Paris Climate Change Agreement (2015): to assess CO2 absorption from the atmosphere by forest communities under the current global warming and forest adaptation to climate change. The regulation processes of the carbon cycle by the forest cover, with the effect of mitigating the predicted warming, were revealed with the help of empirical–statistical modeling. The adaptation potential and role of forests in carbon adsorption and conservation were assessed. The proposed index of elastic–plastic functional stability of forest ecosystems was used as an adaptation indicator. Forest sustainability as a direct environmental factor in greenhouse gas absorption was estimated in statistical terms. An unambiguous idea of the significant increase in the ecological resources of boreal and nemoral forests was obtained: their adsorption capacity increased with an increase in the adaptation potential. During the predicted 100-year period, the overall elastic–plastic stability of forest formations should increase in the region, especially at the current velocity of global warming. Due to this fact, a significant increase in the ability of boreal and, to a lesser extent, nemoral forests to absorb greenhouse gases should also be expected. Based on the obtained results of regional prediction modeling, coupled study of the adsorption capacity of forest biomes and their adaptation to the changing climate is effective.