Abstract
BackgroundBacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a globally distributed zoonotic pathogen that continues to be a veterinary and human health problem in Central Asia. We used a database of anthrax outbreak locations in Kazakhstan and a subset of genotyped isolates to model the geographic distribution and ecological associations of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The aims of the study were to test the influence of soil variables on a previous ecological niche based prediction of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan and to determine if a single sub-lineage of B. anthracis occupies a unique ecological niche.ResultsThe addition of soil variables to the previously developed ecological niche model did not appreciably alter the limits of the predicted geographic or ecological distribution of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The A1.a experiment predicted the sub-lineage to be present over a larger geographic area than did the outbreak based experiment containing multiple lineages. Within the geographic area predicted to be suitable for B. anthracis by all ten best subset models, the A1.a sub-lineage was associated with a wider range of ecological tolerances than the outbreak-soil experiment. Analysis of rule types showed that logit rules predominate in the outbreak-soil experiment and range rules in the A1.a sub-lineage experiment. Random sub-setting of locality points suggests that models of B. anthracis distribution may be sensitive to sample size.ConclusionsOur analysis supports careful consideration of the taxonomic resolution of data used to create ecological niche models. Further investigations into the environmental affinities of individual lineages and sub-lineages of B. anthracis will be useful in understanding the ecology of the disease at large and small scales. With model based predictions serving as approximations of disease risk, these efforts will improve the efficacy of public health interventions for anthrax prevention and control.
Highlights
Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a globally distributed zoonotic pathogen that continues to be a veterinary and human health problem in Central Asia
Ecological niche modelling (ENM) has been used to predict the potential ecological and geographic distribution of pathogens based on outbreak locations [10,11,12,13,14], presence of disease vectors [15,16,17] and disease reservoirs [18]
The outbreaksoil model had an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.7188 and was significantly different from a random model
Summary
The causative agent of anthrax, is a globally distributed zoonotic pathogen that continues to be a veterinary and human health problem in Central Asia. We used a database of anthrax outbreak locations in Kazakhstan and a subset of genotyped isolates to model the geographic distribution and ecological associations of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) has been used to predict the potential ecological and geographic distribution of pathogens based on outbreak locations [10,11,12,13,14], presence of disease vectors [15,16,17] and disease reservoirs [18]. Ecological niche modelling experiments of B. anthracis are useful considering the potential associations between spore survival and ecological conditions [1,5]. Results can be used as a proxy for disease risk and integrated into focused surveillance strategies for wildlife and livestock in endemic areas and into vaccination strategies that target at risk herds before and during outbreak events [10]
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