Ecological Determinants of White and Black Inmigration To Small Areas in Central Cities, 1965 To 1970

Abstract

White and Negro inmigration rates into central city census tracts of five Virginia metropolitan areas were analyzed in terms of ecological characteristics-socioeconomic, demographic, and housing quality characteristics and the heterogeneity of these characteristics. As hypothesized, white inmigration rates exceeded Negro rates. Both white and Negro rates were higher in tracts with higher socioeconomic levels and better housing quality, and with smaller shares of Negro population but larger shares of families in child-rearing stages. Diversity of ecological characteristics proved to be less important than the tract characteristics, themselves, in the analysis of net relationships. Although the explained variance in Negro inmigration rates was much lower than that for whites, comparisons of the pattern of ecological determinants for the two races showed more similarities than differences. The loss of population, particularly white population, in the central cities of larger metropolitan areas has challenged policy-makers at all levels of government to retain current residents and to attract inmigrants to revitalize the central city. A second concern with the current patterns of population deconcentration stems from the resulting racial composition. Declining proportions of white residents yield racially segregated neighborhoods and public schools. Rejection of busing policies has turned attention to other means to integrate schools, such as strategies to integrate neighborhoods. While a wealth of migration literature specifies the nature of demographic, economic, and industrial characteristics of larger areal unitscities, metropolitan areas, states, and regions-which differentially attract migrants, little attention has been given to the ecological characteristics of small areas within the city which serve to attract inmigrants. I Yet, it is empirical generalizations at the level of the small area which are needed to provide guidelines for policy designed to upgrade the quality of specific neighborhood environments to attract white migrants and migrants of higher SES to central city rather than ring destinations. This study then is directed to discern the demographic, socioeconomic, and housing characteristics of small areas within the central cities of Virginia metropolitan areas which differentially attracted inmigrants from 1965 to 1970. We compare the ecological determinants of white and Negro inmigration rates in order to derive racial differentials in the patterns of determinants important to each type of inmigration. *The authors are grateful to the Population Division of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, who supported this research (grant no. 5RO1 HD0627 1).