Echoes of silence: how social influence fosters self-censorship under democratic backsliding

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ABSTRACT Self-censorship is a ubiquitous phenomenon in authoritarian regimes. Despite the abundance of research empirically identifying its prevalence in such contexts, little is known about how self-censorship spreads among ordinary citizens, especially under democratic backsliding and authoritarian onset. This article argues that social influence plays a pivotal role in shaping individuals’ decision to self-censor. Based on a cross-sectional survey of pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong following the introduction of a national security law in 2020, we find that respondents are more likely to exercise self-censorship in their daily lives when they (1) have received cautionary reminders from family members and peers or (2) have more acquaintances who are self-censoring. Further analysis indicates that both effects – known as direct persuasion and observational learning, respectively – are partially mediated by respondents’ risk perception and emotional reactions. The findings show that multiple mechanisms could be at work to effectuate self-censorship, challenging the notion that self-censorship is induced merely by the “self”. By highlighting the role of social influences, this study shed lights on the micro-foundation of authoritarianism and reveals how self-censorship reproduces and diffuses during democratic backsliding.