Earthquake Risk Assessment Using GIS-Based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP): The Case of Bitlis Province (Türkiye)

Abstract

The risk level of natural disasters such as earthquakes depends on many factors. Some of these are direct hazards, while others are vulnerability factors that increase the risk. In this regard, risk assessment should be performed by evaluating the hazard and vulnerability factors together. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a powerful tool for co-evaluating such multiple decision criteria. The spatial visualization of the results facilitates the direct assessment of risks as well. In the present study, the seismic risk assessment of the Bitlis province in Eastern Anatolia, which has a high seismic risk, was performed by using the GIS-based AHP method. Among many criteria, six effective criteria on earthquake risk such as seismicity, demographic and topographic criteria were taken into consideration based on expert decision makers. It is concluded that the results obtained from the study were quite successful in terms of determining the seismic risks of the study area. Accordingly, while the risks are high in densely populated settlements with high peak ground acceleration (PGA), the risk decreases according to soil and land use.