Abstract
Simple SummaryFor three years (2009–2012), two red wood ant mounds (Formica rufa-group), located at the seismically active Neuwied Basin (Eifel, Germany), have been monitored 24/7 by high-resolution cameras. Early results show that ants have a well-identifiable standard daily routine. Correlation with local seismic events suggests changes in the ants’ behavior hours before the earthquake: the nocturnal rest phase and daily activity are suppressed, and standard daily routine does not resume until the next day. At present, an automated image evaluation routine is being applied to the video streams. Based on this automated approach, a statistical analysis of the ant behavior will be carried out. Short-term earthquake predictions with an advance warning of several hours or days are currently not possible due to both incomplete understanding of the complex tectonic processes and inadequate observations. Abnormal animal behaviors before earthquakes have been reported previously, but create problems in monitoring and reliability. The situation is different with red wood ants (RWA; Formica rufa-group (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)). They have stationary mounds on tectonically active, gas-bearing fault systems. These faults may be potential earthquake areas. For three years (2009–2012), two red wood ant mounds (Formica rufa-group), located at the seismically active Neuwied Basin (Eifel, Germany), have been monitored 24/7 by high-resolution cameras with both a color and an infrared sensor. Early results show that ants have a well-identifiable standard daily routine. Correlation with local seismic events suggests changes in the ants’ behavior hours before the earthquake: the nocturnal rest phase and daily activity are suppressed, and standard daily routine does not resume until the next day. At present, an automated image evaluation routine is being applied to the more than 45,000 hours of video streams. Based on this automated approach, a statistical analysis of the ants’ behavior will be carried out. In addition, other parameters (climate, geotectonic and biological), which may influence behavior, will be included in the analysis.
Highlights
One of the major challenges of seismology is to predict earthquakes
The situation is different with red wood ants (RWA; Formica rufa-group (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)
The results show that it is essential to monitor the ants’ behavior before the earthquake strikes a region
Summary
One of the major challenges of seismology is to predict earthquakes. despite applying modern space and/or ground based technologies, a reliable method for short-term earthquake forecasting with reliable warnings several hours or days in advance is currently not possible and remains limited to only a few minutes before the quake happens. Earthquake precursors, like ionospheric perturbations, electromagnetic phenomena, ground heating and composition changes of soil-efflux (radon, CO2, etc.), have been scientifically investigated. They are far from being successfully applicable, because these precursors are highly regionally variable depending on the large-scale tectonic main stress regime, and on the small-scale tectonic regime [1,2,3]. Long-term in situ data collection, statistically significant validation of these precursors in focus regions over a long period of time and plausible scenarios explaining the evolution of such behaviors are still missing
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