Early Prediction of New-Onset Diabetes Mellitus by Fifth-Day Fasting Plasma Glucose, Pulse Pressure, and Proteinuria

Abstract

Renal transplant recipients are at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). New-onset diabetes mellitus after transplantation (NODAT) contributes to the risk of CVD, reducing graft and patient survival. To improve outcome of kidney transplant recipients, it is of great interest to identify those patients who will develop NODAT. The aim of our study was to explore the predictive value of fifth-day fasting plasma glucose (FPG), third-month proteinuria, and pulse pressure (PP) for NODAT development. We analyzed 282 non-previously-diabetic kidney transplants in our center. Fifth-day FPG, PP, and third-month 24-hour proteinuria were collected. NODAT was defined at month 12 according to the “consensus guidelines”: symptoms of diabetes plus casual glucose concentrations ≥ 200 mg/dL or FPG ≥ 126 mg/dL. Some 46 patients (16.3%) developed NODAT at month 12. Fifth-day FPG (133 ± 35 vs 108 ± 16 mg/dL, P < .001) and PP (57 ± 17 vs 49 ± 15 mm Hg, P = .007) were significantly higher in patients at risk for NODAT, but there was no difference in third-month proteinuria (652 ± 959 vs 472 ± 1336 mg, P = .390). A multivariate regression model showed an increased risk for NODAT associated with recipient age, body mass index, smoking habit, and a fifth-day FPG ≥ 126 mg/dL (relative risk 4.784, 95% confidence interval 2.121–10.788, P = .0002). The negative predictive value of a fifth-day FPG ≥ 126 mg/dL for predicting 1-year NODAT was 89.4%. Fifth-day FPG was independently related to NODAT development. The detection of a fifth-day FPG ≥ 126 mg/dL increases the risk of suffering NODAT more than 4 times. Fifth-day FPG < 126 mg/dL allows us to identify a transplant population with a low risk (near 10%) for NODAT.