Early 21st-century glacier surface mass balance across High Mountain Asia derived from remote sensing

Abstract

<p>Glaciers in High Mountain Asia have experienced intense scientific scrutiny in the past decade due to their hydrological and societal importance. The explosion of freely-available satellite observations has greatly advanced our understanding of their thinning, motion, and overall mass losses, and it has become clear that they exhibit both local and regional variations due to debris cover, surging and climatic regime. However, our understanding of glacier accumulation and ablation rates is limited to a few individual sites, and altitudinal surface mass balance is essentially unknown across the vast region.</p><p>Here we combine recent assessments of ice thickness and surface velocity to correct observed glacier thinning rates for mass redistribution in a flowband framework to derive the first estimates of altitudinal glacier surface mass balance across the region. We first evaluate our results at the glacier scale with all available glaciological field measurements (27 glaciers), then analyze 4665 glaciers (we exclude surging and other anomalous glaciers) comprising 43% of area and 36% of mass for glaciers larger than 2 km<sup>2</sup> in the region. The surface mass balance results allow us to determine the equilibrium line altitude for each glacier for the period 2000-2016.  We then aggregate our altitudinal and hypsometric surface mass balance results to produce idealised profiles for distinct subregions, enabling us to consider the subregional heterogeneity of mass balance and the importance of debris-covered ice for the region’s overall ablation.</p><p>We find clear patterns of ELA variability across the region.  9% of glaciers accumulate mass over less than 10% of their area on average for the study period. These doomed  glaciers are concentrated in Nyainqentanglha, which also has the most negative mass balance of the subregions, whereas accumulation area ratios of 0.7-0.9 are common for glaciers in the neutral-balance Karakoram and Kunlun Shan. We find that surface debris extent is negatively correlated with ELA, explaining up to 1000 m of variability across the region and reflecting the importance of avalanching as a mass input for debris-covered glaciers at lower elevations. However, in contrast with studies of thinning rates alone, we find a clear melt reduction for low-elevation debris-covered glacier areas, consistent across regions, largely resolving the ‘debris cover anomaly’.  </p><p>Our results provide a comprehensive baseline for the health of the High Asian ice reservoirs in the early 21<sup>st</sup> Century. The estimates of altitudinal surface mass balance and ELAs will additionally enable novel strategies for the calibration of glacier and hydrological models. Finally, our results emphasize the potential of combined remote-sensing observations to understand the environmental factors and physical processes responsible for High Asia’s heterogeneous patterns of recent glacier evolution.</p>