Dynamics of production and export of potato from India: Markov chain approach

Abstract

The present study was conducted to know the growth in area, production, productivity, and export of potatoes from India as well as to understand the change in direction and magnitude of the export of Indian potatoes to different countries. The study is based on secondary data collected from different e-resources like APEDA (Agricultural and Processed Food Export Development Authority) and Indiastat. The data was collected for a period of 15 years from 2006- 07 to 2020-21. The study revealed that all the variables like area, production, productivity, export quantity, and export values showed positive growth rates and were found to be significant at 1 percent. Markov chain analysis and transition probability matrix indicated that Nepal, Oman, and other minor countries pooled under the category “other” were found loyal to India in importing Indian potatoes since they retained a considerable share of their trade whereas Saudi Arabia is less stable and Malaysia is least stable among the competing countries considered over the study period of 15 years. Hence India can rely upon Nepal, Oman, and other minor countries in the export of its potato and therefore policies need to be oriented towards these countries in the export of potatoes in the near future.