Dynamics of larch bud moth populations: Application of Moran – Ricker models with time lag

Abstract

Modifications of Moran–Ricker model with time lags are applied for fitting of larch bud moth (Zeiraphera diniana Gn.) time series. Model parameters were estimated, and deviations between model trajectories and empirical time series were analyzed with various statistical tests. It was shown that some of considered models allowed obtaining rather good fitting. For estimated parameters asymptotic stable dynamic regimes were found: it is 9-year cycle (for model with time lag in four years), it is 18-year cycle (with close values of cycle coordinates for model with time lag in one year), or regime with complicated dynamics (for model with time lag in three years). Obtained results correspond to biological imagination about fluctuations of larch bud moth populations.