Abstract
With increasing population growth, the Harare Metropolitan Province has experienced accelerated land use and land cover (LULC) changes, influencing the city’s growth. This study aims to assess spatiotemporal urban LULC changes, the axis, and patterns of growth as well as drivers influencing urban growth over the past three decades in the Harare Metropolitan Province. The analysis was based on remotely sensed Landsat Thematic Mapper and Operational Land Imager data from 1984–2018, GIS application, and binary logistic regression. Supervised image classification using support vector machines was performed on Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI data combined with the soil adjusted vegetation index, enhanced built-up and bareness index and modified difference water index. Statistical modelling was performed using binary logistic regression to identify the influence of the slope and the distance proximity characters as independent variables on urban growth. The overall mapping accuracy for all time periods was over 85%. Built-up areas extended from 279.5 km2 (1984) to 445 km2 (2018) with high-density residential areas growing dramatically from 51.2 km2 (1984) to 218.4 km2 (2018). The results suggest that urban growth was influenced mainly by the presence and density of road networks.
Highlights
And spatially, urbanization is an uneven process supporting residential expansion, including growth in population size of individuals living in urban areas and expansion of physical structures in an urban setup in addition to the previously existing structures [1,2]
The current study reveals that zones of urban area or built-up area expansion were associated with relatively gentle undulating slopes (Figure S1) which can be attributed to low housing costs, cheap land acquired through housing schemes and informal urban settlements [19]
This study investigated the influence of independent variables as urban growth explanatory characters using binary logistic regression
Summary
And spatially, urbanization is an uneven process supporting residential expansion, including growth in population size of individuals living in urban areas and expansion of physical structures in an urban setup in addition to the previously existing structures [1,2]. Urbanization is directly changing and affecting the environment, as it is made distinct by the increasing built-up and impervious areas at the expense of wetland areas and agricultural landscapes. Such actions result in the transformation of natural landscapes into agricultural landscapes [3]. Muller et al [7] highlights that urbanization is one of the greatest factors contributing to biodiversity loss due to the expansion of industrial, residential and commercial business areas. Urbanization is a continuous process, and megacities such as Delhi, India had a total increase in population of 47.02% within a decade between 1991 and 2001 [9].
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