Abstract
Abstract In this paper, a periodic Chikungunya model with temperature and rainfall effects is proposed and studied, which incorporates time-dependent extrinsic incubation period, time-dependent maturation delay, asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious humans. Two threshold parameters for the extinction and persistence of mosquitos and the virus are derived, respectively: the mosquito reproduction number R m and the basic reproduction number R 0 . Then the analytic results are verified by numerical simulation with the temperature and rainfall data of the state of Ceara, where the largest outbreak in Brazil’s history occurred in 2017. And the effects of rainfall, seasonality, and asymptomatic infection in humans on mosquito population and the Chikungunya transmission are explored. Our simulations show that if these factors are not taken into account, the number of mosquito population and people infected may be overestimated. Finally, the relationships between R m and R 0 and some parameters are established.
Published Version
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call