Dynamics and development trends of the global grain market

Abstract

The grain market has a significant share in the overall structure of the global agro-food system. The level of its development plays a decisive role in ensuring food security, the level of welfare of the population and export opportunities, especially for developing and least developed countries. The article is devoted to the analysis of the state of the global cereal market. The dynamics of global production, consumption, trade, and residues from 2000 to 2022, as well as the dynamics of the commodity structure of the most popular crops (wheat, corn, rice) on the global grain market are analyzed. Key development trends are identified, in particular, the impact of the covid-19 pandemic and russia's military aggression against Ukraine on the global grain market and food security, in particular, of developing and least developed countries, is indicated. It is noted that the long continuation of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine can cause hunger riots in these states and, as historical experience shows, even lead to coups. The prospects for the development of the cereal market in terms of commodity and geographical structure are revealed. The top 10 exporting countries are singled out and the main features of the studied markets of the first five countries are characterized. Development trends of regional grain markets until 2030 are determined, and their key asymmetries are also revealed (unevenness of production and trade, different level of solvency and per capita income, predominance of certain consumer preferences depending on the level of economic development of the country and cultural and civilizational factor, different level of technological development and security, etc.). The importance of agriculture 4.0, which is based on the achievements of the fourth industrial revolution (Industry 4.0) and consists in the intensive integration of the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, big data, artificial intelligence and blockchain technology in agriculture, and plays a key role in overcoming existing imbalances and development of the global grain market, which is the key to ensuring food security.