Dynamics and competitiveness of Nigeria’s sesame production in international trade: Vector error correction method

Abstract

This research study evaluated the dynamics and competitiveness of Nigeria’s sesame (Sesamum indicum) production in international trade. Secondary data were used, in the data period of 1982 to 2022 (41 years). The data used were sourced from NBS, CBN, FAO, World Bank publication, and General Household Survey-Panel (GHS-P) in conjunction with Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. The econometric tools used were Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen co-integration test, Zivot – Andrews (Z-A), Lee Strazicich (LM) structural break unit root tests, and vector error correction model (VECM). The result of the ADF unit root test shows that all the test variables were stationary at first difference I (1). The results of the Johansen co-integration test for the time series data shows that the trace test statistics indicate 2 co-integrating equations, the Max-Eigen values also indicates 2 co-integrating equations. The estimated long run effect using VECM shows that area, yield, and world trade in oilseed, were positively and significantly related to the dynamics and competitiveness of Nigeria’s sesame seed in international trade. The real exchange rate had a negative coefficient and was non-significantly related to the dynamics and competitiveness of Nigeria’s sesame seed in international trade. The coefficient of the error correction term (ECM) is with the expected negative sign and statistically significant at 1% level of probability, this is an indication of a move back towards equilibrium with a magnitude of -0.95. Policies that would encourage exportation of sesame should be pursued and enhancing research activities on improving quality of sesame produced.