Abstract
Botswana experiences a water stressed situation due to the climate and a continuously increasing water demand. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is considered, among other measures, to improve the situation. To evaluate the possibility for increased water supply security, a probabilistic and dynamic water supply security model was developed. Statistically generated time series of source water availability are used in combination with the dynamic storages in dams and aquifers, and the possible supply is compared with the demand to simulate the magnitude and probability of water supply shortages. The model simulates the system and possible mitigation measures from 2013 to 2035 (23 years), using one-month time steps. The original system is not able to meet the demand, and the estimated volumetric supply reliability in the year 2035 is 0.51. An additional surface water dam (now implemented) will increase the reliability to 0.88 but there will still be a significant water shortage problem. Implementing large-scale MAR can further improve the reliability to at least 0.95. System properties limiting the effect of MAR are identified using the model and show how to further improve the effect of MAR. The case study results illustrate the importance and benefit of using an integrated approach, including time-dependence and future scenarios, when evaluating the need and potential of MAR.
Highlights
Access to potable water is essential to human health and economic development
Several examples exist where system dynamic modelling [17] has been used to analyse the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater
This approach is common when evaluating policy options [18,19] but examples including aquifer storage and recover exist [20]. Another type of modelling approach was applied by Clark et al [21] to analyse the reliability of water supply from stormwater harvesting and Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR)
Summary
Access to potable water is essential to human health and economic development. Water scarcity and drought are, major challenges on all continents [1] and must be managed to enable safe and secure access to clean water. Climate change, increased water demand and other factors will increase the problem of water scarcity, making this a key issue to reach the UN Sustainable. This calls for integrated water resources management, including measures to avoid water losses, the efficient use of water, the introduction of water saving technologies, as well as of water re-use and recycling. Botswana is an example where the hydrological conditions and a continuously increasing water demand result in a water stressed situation. Safe, and sustainable water supply, it is
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