Dynamic Spatial-Distributed Fire Risk Analysis

Abstract

The chapter develops a dynamic spatial-distributed model of forest fire risk. The structure of forest fire risk is represented by two interrelated groups of components describing a potential of forest fire and describing valuable objects being under fire influence. The concept of fire risk which contains the probability of forest fire occurrence, its intensity, and effect, is extended using the threat as the additional prognostic spatial-temporal component that has a predictive property and allows forecasting the possibility of losses at any time. The model of fire risk is based on three stages: potential risk, the source of which is described by fire danger; risk of threat of active forest fire which hasn't covered valuable object yet; risk of destruction when the active fire has covered valuable object. Representation of risk as a process based on three stages allows describing the dynamics of risk in real-time systems, getting insight into risk nature, as well as diagnosing the situation in real time.