Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Change from 2000 to 2040: A Case Study of the Nanchang Urban Agglomeration

Abstract

Land use/land cover change (LUCC) constitutes a significant contributor to variations in the storage of carbon within ecosystems and holds substantial significance within the context of the carbon cycling process. This study analyzed land use data from the Nanchang urban agglomeration in 2000 and 2020 to investigate changes in land use and carbon storage using the PLUS model and GIS. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the Nanchang urban agglomeration experienced reductions in the extents of croplands, woodlands, grasslands, and unused lands. The predominant trend in land transformation involved the conversion of cropland into built-up land. (2) Between 2000 and 2020, there was a declining trajectory observed in carbon storage for the Nanchang urban agglomeration, with an overall decrease of 1.13 × 107 t. The space is characterized by a high-altitude perimeter and a low-altitude center. Urbanization’s encroachment on cropland is the main reason for declining carbon storage. (3) The predictive outcomes reveal that, in 2040, carbon storage in the Nanchang urban agglomeration will be reduced by 1.00 × 107 t under the natural development scenario, and reduced by 3.90 × 106 t and increased by 2.29 × 105 t, respectively, under the cropland protection and ecological protection scenarios. The risk of carbon loss is significantly reduced by ecological protection policy interventions. Our analysis of the land use patterns and carbon storage distribution in the Nanchang urban agglomeration over the past 20 years and our exploration of the land use change trend over the next 20 years under the conservation policy provide a reference basis for increasing the carbon sink in the core area of the ecological city cluster of Poyang Lake and realizing the sustainable development of the city.