Dynamic Route Choice Based on Prospect Theory

Abstract

Traveller route choice behaviour is influenced by many uncertain factors, which include both outer stochastic factors from road network and inner factors from traveller psychology. Traveller route choice behaviour is dynamic in practical travel process, namely traveller can change route on the way. Considered the characteristics of bounded rationality in human decision making process and change of route choice on the way, a dynamic route choice model is established based on prospect theory, and the method of dynamic route choice which is more suitable to human thinking habits and actual travel characteristics is proposed in this paper. The method allows the traveller to adjust the route according to road situation at any time. Decision making process reflects that the influence of traveller reference point on the decision result. Reference point changes with the situation of road sections passed. The examples are given to verify the validity and explain application of the method. The result shows that traveller can change route on the way when he meet congestion on the section passed, and if traveller's psychological expected time can not be met, he will choose risky route, by which the probability of congestion is higher. The method describes traveller route choice behaviour process better and reflects the true situation of road network. It is beneficial to predict traveller behaviours and changes of traffic network situation, and have certain guiding significance for traffic network planning and traffic intelligent control.