Dynamic robustness modelling of electricity critical infrastructure elements as a part of energy security

Abstract

The key components of an Electricity Critical Infrastructure (ECI) are the elements of system required to permanently provide services with a certain performance level. In the case of disruptive events effects on these elements, the key security factor is their robustness, which is an important determinant of element resilience. Current methods can already assess the static level of element resilience but are as yet unable to creating dynamic models of resilience decrease due to disruptive events. In this context, dynamic security assessment is an important area for determining energy supply security. Based on this observation, the authors of the article created amethod for Dynamic Robustness Modelling (DRM) which allows ECI element robustness dynamic modelling which can be clearly considered as a new concept of robust, secure and resilient of ECI. This stochastic method uses integral calculus and analysis of dynamic robustness in elements in the context of a predicted disruptive event scenario. The method quantifies thenegative effect of predicted disruptive events and the subsequent decrease in the level of robustness due to this effect at theexpected time of exposure. Practical use of the method is illustrated through a case study that models a decrease in the level of robustness of an electricity transformer station during an intentional man-made attack.