Abstract
Abstract The dynamic risk assessment of drought is crucial in the transition from the crisis management model to the risk management model, which can reveal the evolution mechanism of drought disasters. Due to a lack of data and research perspectives, most current studies are still based on static risk assessment. This study proposes a conceptual model for the dynamic risk assessment of droughts based on the probability of their occurrence and potential impacts. The developed dynamic risk index considers the hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and capacity for drought mitigation. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to determine the weight coefficient of each indicator in the model. The novelty of the proposed model lies in the integration of four elements of drought disasters with spatiotemporal characteristics. Jiangxi Province, which is frequently affected by drought, was selected as the study area to validate the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model rapidly reflects the degree of drought disaster risk caused by drought events and the influencing factors at monthly and annual scales. Moreover, the datasets based on the influencing factors of drought disasters in different regions have a good commonality in the proposed model.
Highlights
Drought is probably the most complex and severe natural disaster, which affects more people than any other type of natural hazard (Wilhite )
Researchers use the theory of risk formation based on natural disasters for drought risk assessment
Based on the research on the dynamic assessment of natural disaster risks, this study proposed a dynamic assessment model of drought disasters based on the four factors of drought disasters over time
Summary
Drought is probably the most complex and severe natural disaster, which affects more people than any other type of natural hazard (Wilhite ). It has the widest range of influence, the longest duration of prevalence, and causes huge economic loss (Sheffield et al ). Researchers use the theory of risk formation based on natural disasters for drought risk assessment. A common tool for drought risk assessment is to estimate the drought indices using observable meteorological and hydrological data, which can be used as an individual index or as a combination of other indices. Integrated analysis of the frequency, recurrence period, exposure, and vulnerability are the variables that are used to characterize the risk posed by droughts (Birkmann ). The results obtained are limited to the probability distribution of the risk of drought disasters for a specific period
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