Dynamic responses of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to global temperature changes between 1850 and 2010

Abstract

Changes in Earth’s temperature have significant impacts on the global carbon cycle that vary at different time scales, yet to quantify such impacts with a simple scheme is traditionally deemed difficult. Here, we show that, by incorporating a temperature sensitivity parameter (1.64 ppm yr-1 °C-1) into a simple linear carbon-cycle model, we can accurately characterize the dynamic responses of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to anthropogenic carbon emissions and global temperature changes between 1850 and 2010 (r 2 > 0.96 and the root-mean-square error < 1 ppm for the period from 1960 onward). Analytical analysis also indicates that the multiplication of the parameter with the response time of the atmospheric carbon reservoir (~12 year) approximates the long-term temperature sensitivity of global atmospheric CO2 concentration (~15 ppm °C-1), generally consistent with previous estimates based on reconstructed CO2 and climate records over the Little Ice Age. Our results suggest that recent increases in global surface temperatures, which accelerate the release of carbon from the surface reservoirs into the atmosphere, have partially offset surface carbon uptakes enhanced by the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and slowed the net rate of atmospheric CO2 sequestration by global land and oceans by ~30% since the 1960s. The linear modeling framework outlined in this paper thus provides a useful tool to diagnose the observed atmospheric CO2 dynamics and monitor their future changes.