Abstract
When compared to the average annual global temperature record from 1880, no published climate model posited on the assumption that the increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide is the driver of climate change can accurately replicate the significant variability in the annual temperature record. Therefore, new principles of atmospheric physics are developed for determining changes in the average annual global temperature based on changes in the average atmospheric concentration of water vapor. These new principles prove that: 1) Changes in average global temperature are not driven by changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide; 2) Instead, autonomous changes in the concentration of water vapor, ΔTPW, drive changes in water vapor heating, thus, the average global temperature, ΔTAvg, in accordance with this principle, ΔTAvg=0.4ΔTPW the average accuracy of which is ±0.14%, when compared to the variable annual, 1880-2019, temperature record; 3) Changes in the concentration of water vapor and changes in water vapor heating are not a feedback response to changes in the concentration of CO2; 4) Rather, increases in water vapor heating and increases in the concentration of water vapor drive each other in an autonomous positive feedback loop; 5) This feedback loop can be brought to a halt if the average global rate of precipitation can be brought into balance with the average global rate of evaporation and maintained there; and, 6) The recent increases in average global temperature can be reversed, if average global precipitation can be increased sufficiently to slightly exceed the average rate of evaporation.
Highlights
Develop wholly new principles of atmospheric physics; Identify and prove the cause of climate change; In so doing, assess the role, if any, changes the increasing concentration of CO2 may play; Posit a possible solution to the existential problem that is global warming.Global Warming Since 1976, the average global temperature has been increasing at the rate of ~0.2 ̊C/decade
When compared to the average annual global temperature record from 1880, no published climate model posited on the assumption that the increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide is the driver of climate change can accurately replicate the significant variability in the annual temperature record
The precipitation/evaporation imbalance that arose in 1977 was, on average, maintained as global warming commenced in earnest
Summary
Global Warming Since 1976, the average global temperature has been increasing at the rate of ~0.2 ̊C/decade. The data for changes from average in global land precipitation, ΔPRL, evaporation and concentration of water vapor are set out in Figure S1 and Table S5. The annual year over year percentage changes in evaporation, determined from the precipitation change data set out, calculated changes in the concentration of water vapor, ΔTPW, using NOAA data [2] [3] which is set out in Table S5 and determined from the application of Equations 1 and S1 are shown in red, year over year changes in annual precipitation are set out in blue. If, ΔPRLN-ΔPRLo were 1% and 0.15% (ΔTPWN-ΔTPWo) were to be calculated as −1%, ,
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