Dynamic prediction of cancer-specific survival for primary hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

Abstract

This study investigated a large cohort of patients to construct a predictive nomogram and a web-based survival rate calculator for dynamically predicting the cancer-specific survival of patients with primary hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HSCC). Patients (n = 2007) initially diagnosed with primary HSCC from 2004 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. All patients were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts (1:1). The Lasso Cox regression model was applied to identify independent risk factors of cancer-specific survival for a predictive nomogram and a web-based calculator. The model was evaluated by concordance index, calibration, and decision curve analysis. Cancer-specific survival rates decreased with time, while 3-year conditional survival increased. Cancer-specific deaths evolved from relatively high within the first 3years to low thereafter. Age, race, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and marital status were identified as independent risk factors. We constructed a predictive nomogram for survival and a web-based calculator ( https://linzhongyang.shinyapps.io/Hypopharyngeal/ ). Additionally, a prognostic risk stratification was developed according to nomogram total points. Patients with primary HSCC were found at a high risk of cancer-specific death during the first 3years, indicating that additional effective follow-up strategies should be implemented over the period. This is the first study to construct a predictive nomogram and a web-based calculator for all patients with HSCC.