Nomograms predicting prognosis for locally advanced hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

Abstract

This study aimed to construct nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with locally advanced hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HSCC). 864 patients with locally advanced HSCC during 2010-2015 from the surveillance, epidemiology and end results (SEER) database were selected. After classifying continuous data by risk, Cox regression analyses were applied to detect significant independent prognostic factors, with which nomograms were established. To evaluate the value of nomograms, concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA), Kaplan-Meier analysis was adopted. The efficacy of surgery in different risk groups was also studied to figure out people who can benefit from surgery. A total of 864 locally advanced HSCC patients were randomized into the training cohort (n = 608) and the validation cohort (n = 256). Age, race, tumor size, T stage, N stage, primary site, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS (except race) and formed the nomograms. The nomograms revealed satisfied performance in C-index, AUC, DCA, and calibration curves, and prevailed over American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging system in predicting OS and CSS. After risk stratification, patients of low-risk group resulted in the best outcomes. Patients in moderate-risk may benefit from surgery. Convenient and well-calibrated nomograms to predict OS and CSS for III/IVA/IVB-stage HSCC patients were set up and assessed and may do a favor to make clinical decisions.