Dynamic Patterns in Vietnam’s Comparative Advantage

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic patterns in Vietnam’s comparative advantage in the context of ASEAN. Using the Galtonian regression method and the Markov transition probability matrices for data from 1997 to 2008, we find the following: Firstly, commodity groups with a weak comparative advantage improved their competitiveness, whereas those groups with a strong comparative advantage saw it decline, indicating a convergence of their comparative advantages. Secondly, in terms of intra-distribution dynamics, industries with no initial comparative advantage (Class a) and those with a strong initial comparative advantage (Class d) showed a high degree of persistence, suggesting a low degree of mobility in the trade patterns for Classes a and d. Thirdly, mineral resource-intensive products showed a high degree of export specialization, whereas other product categories showed a high degree of export diversification. Fourthly, all commodity groups showed a downward trend in the degree of specialization. Finally, Vietnam’s exports were dominated by unskilled labor-intensive products and agricultural resource-intensive products, reflecting the Heckscher-Ohlin model. As a result of the country’s trade liberalization, the patterns of Vietnam’s comparative advantage have come to reflect its factor endowment. These results suggest that Vietnam could better diversify its export structures and shift to exports based on human capital and technology by further liberalizing its trade policies, fostering human capital formation, and facilitating the transfer of technology.