Dynamic modeling and data fitting of climatic and environmental factors and people's behavior factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shanghai, China

Abstract

BackgroundHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) appear to be a multi-wave outbreak with unknown mechanisms. We investigate the effects of climatic and environmental factors and changes in people's behavior factors that may be caused by external factors: temperature, relative humidity, and school opening and closing. MethodsDistributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and dynamic model are used to research multi-wave outbreaks of HFMD. Climatic and environmental factors impact on transmission rate β(t) is modeled through DLNM and then substituted into this relationship to establish the dynamic model with reported case data to test for validity. ResultsRelative risk (RR) of HFMD infection increases with increasing temperature. The RR of infection first increases and then decreases with the increase of relative humidity. For the model fitting HFMD dynamic, time average basic reproduction number [R0] of Stage I (without vaccine) and Stage II (with EV71 vaccine) are 1.9362 and 1.5478, respectively. Temperature has the highest explanatory power, followed by school opening and closing, and relative humidity. ConclusionWe obtain three conclusions about the prevention and control of HFMD. 1) According to the temperature, relative humidity and school start time, the outbreak peak of HFMD should be warned and targeted prevention and control measures should be taken. 2) Reduce high indoor temperature when more than 31.5 oC, and increase low relative humidity when less than 77.5% by opening the window for ventilation, adding houseplants, using air conditioners and humidifiers, reducing the incidence of HFMD and the number of infections. 3) The risk of HFMD transmission during winter vacations is higher than during summer vacations. It is necessary to strengthen the publicity of HFMD prevention knowledge before winter vacations and strengthen the disinfection control measures during winter vacations in children's hospitals, school classrooms, and other places where children gather to reduce the frequency of staff turnover during winter vacations.