Analysis on association between incidence of hand foot and mouth disease and meteorological factors in Xiamen, 2013-2017

Abstract

Objective: To study the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Xiamen, Fujian province, and provide scientific evidence for the early warning, prediction, prevention and control of HFMD. Methods: Correlation analysis and distribution lag nonlinear models (DLNM) analysis of meteorological factors such as daily average pressure, daily average relative humidity, daily average temperature and sunshine hours and the incidence of HFMD in Xiamen during 2013 to 2017 were conducted by using R3.4.3 software. Results: A total of 36 464 cases of HFMD were reported in Xiamen during 2013-2017, and the incidence showed an upward trend (F=40.359, P=0.008). The daily average relative humidity, daily average temperature and sunshine hours were positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (r>0), and the daily average site pressure was negatively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (r<0). In the case of a lag of 0-5 days, when the daily average pressure of the station was higher than 1 005 hPa, the risk of HFMD gradually increased with the increase of air pressure, and the risk of disease decreased with the increase of lag days. The risk was highest when air pressure was 1 017 hPa and at the lag of 0 day (RR=1.14, 95%CI: 0.67-1.94). When the relative humidity was higher than 95%, the risk of HFMD gradually increased with the increase of relative humidity, and the lag time ranged from 0 day to 10 days, which was most obvious on the 4(th) and 5(th) days. The risk was highest when relative humidity was 100% and at the lag of 5 days (RR=1.32, 95%CI: 1.02-1.71). When the air temperature was >28 ℃ and <8 ℃, the risk of HFMD existed, but the lag time was inconsistent. The relative risk was highest during 15-20 days at low air temperature, and the lag time at high air temperature was mainly during 5-15 days. The risk was highest when air temperature was 28 ℃ and at the lag of 4 days (RR=1.10, 95%CI: 0.94-1.29). The sunshine time was >12 h and lag of 0-3 days was a risk factor for the incidence of HFMD. The risk was highest when sunshine time was 13 h and the lag of 0 day (RR=1.20, 95%CI: 1.05-1.36). Conclusion: Meteorological factors such as daily average pressure, daily average relative humidity, daily average temperature and sunshine hours were associated with the incidence of HFMD with certain lag in Xiamen. So, it is suggested to use these data in the early warning system of HFMD.