Dynamic Model-Based Risk Manageability in the Modular Construction of High-Rise Residential Buildings to Improve Project time Performance

Abstract

Modular construction has been applied in low-rise buildings over the past three decades, but its application in high-rise buildings is still less than 1% worldwide. Thus, the need for high-rise residential buildings applying modular construction in Indonesia becomes very important. The unavailability of design guidelines disrupts the life cycle of modular construction projects. This study aims to analyze the factors which affect the risk manageability of on-time performance in modular construction residential high-rise building projects, then analyze risk manageability modeling using dynamic systems for on-time performance, then analyze the results of the simulations and modeling scenarios of risk manageability using dynamic systems to improve time performance. The research variables were obtained based on the results of a literature study seeking the opinions of experts qualified in this field. The methods used were cause flow diagram models which were then developed into stock-flow diagrams with input formulation and validation, thereafter simulations and scenarios were carried out and reviewed for time overrun. The research results showed 15 factors of risk manageability that affect on-time performance in the modular construction of residential high-rise buildings. Without any mitigation of the risks, the highest time overrun of 12.79 days was incurred due to drawing approval, then design standardization of 12.79 days, and supply chain 12.78 days. The results of scenario #3 showed an optimistic alternative with a 53.55% improvement whereby project delays decreased from 126 days/25.25% to 59.17 days/11.8%, delivering a time overrun of <20% which could be implemented in the construction process.