Dynamic mathematical model development and validation of in vitro Mycobacterium smegmatis growth under nutrient- and pH-stress

Abstract

Mycobacterium tuberculosis can exist within a host for lengthy periods, tolerating even antibiotic challenge. This non-heritable, antibiotic tolerant “persister” state, is thought to underlie latent Tuberculosis (TB) infection and a deeper understanding thereof could inform treatment strategies. In addition to experimental studies, mathematical and computational modelling approaches are widely employed to study persistence from both an in vivo and in vitro perspective. However, specialized models (partial differential equations, agent-based, multiscale, etc.) rely on several difficult to determine parameters. In this study, a dynamic mathematical model was developed to predict the response of Mycobacterium smegmatis (a model organism for M. tuberculosis) grown in batch culture and subjected to a range of in vitro environmental stresses. Lag phase dynamics, pH variations and internal nitrogen storage were mechanistically modelled. Experimental results were used to train model parameters using global optimization, with extensive subsequent model validation to ensure extensibility to more complex modelling frameworks. This included an identifiability analysis which indicated that seven of the thirteen model parameters were uniquely identifiable. Non-identifiable parameters were critically evaluated. Model predictions compared to validation data (based on experimental results not used during training) were accurate with less than 16% maximum absolute percentage error, indicating that the model is accurate even when extrapolating to new experimental conditions. The bulk growth model can be extended to spatially heterogeneous simulations such as an agent-based model to simulate in vitro granuloma models or, eventually, in vivo conditions, where distributed environmental conditions are difficult to measure.