Water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model

Kulwinder Singh Parmar,Rashmi Bhardwaj

doi:10.1007/s13201-014-0159-9

Kulwinder Singh Parmar, Rashmi Bhardwaj

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-014-0159-9

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Abstract

This paper deals with water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model. The monthly variation of water quality standards has been used to compare statistical mean, median, mode, standard deviation, kurtosis, skewness, coefficient of variation at Yamuna River. Model validated using R-squared, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, maximum absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, maximum absolute error, normalized Bayesian information criterion, Ljung–Box analysis, predicted value and confidence limits. Using auto regressive integrated moving average model, future water quality parameters values have been estimated. It is observed that predictive model is useful at 95 % confidence limits and curve is platykurtic for potential of hydrogen (pH), free ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, water temperature (WT); leptokurtic for chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand. Also, it is observed that predicted series is close to the original series which provides a perfect fit. All parameters except pH and WT cross the prescribed limits of the World Health Organization /United States Environmental Protection Agency, and thus water is not fit for drinking, agriculture and industrial use.

Highlights

Yamuna is the largest tributary river of the Ganga in northern India
It is observed that predictive model is useful at 95 % confidence limits and curve is platykurtic for potential of hydrogen, free ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, water temperature (WT); leptokurtic for chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand
It is observed that curve is platykurtic for potential of hydrogen (pH), AMM, total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), dissolved oxygen (DO), WT; leptokurtic for chemical oxygen demand (COD), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and normal for pH, AMM, DO, WT

Summary

Introduction

Yamuna is the largest tributary river of the Ganga in northern India. It originates from the Yamunotri glacier at a height of 6,387 m on the south western slopes of Banderpooch peaks (38° 590 N 78° 270 E) in the lower Himalayas in Uttarakhand. The river accounts for more than 70 % of Delhi’s water supplies and about 57 million people depend on river water for their daily usage (CPCB 2006). The study of quality of water at Hathnikund is important because after this station Yamuna River enters Delhi (capital of India) and accounts for more than 70 % of Delhi’s water supplies and about 57 million people depend on river water for their daily usage (CPCB 2006)

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