Dynamic Load Prediction Model of Electric Bus Charging Based on WNN

Abstract

Electric buses have a significant penetration rate and high charging frequency and amount. Therefore, their charging load has a momentous influence on the power grid’s operation and dispatch. There are important theoretical and practical reasons to study electric bus charging load prediction; however, the intermittent and random charging behavior of buses makes it more difficult to predict charging load predictions, particularly, in real time. To accomplish this, in this paper a WNN (wavelet neural network)-based dynamic load prediction model for charging electric buses is suggested. We start by using distance and shape to group the charging load curve which, in fact, is done with spectral clustering. As a second step, we take into account a wide range of charging load-affecting variables such as temperature and time of day, in order to better train the WNN. Moreover, the charge loads for each cluster are predicted based on model parameters; subsequently, the forecast day’s total charging load is then calculated by summing the prediction results for each cluster; finally, the proposed method is validated using a real city data set. In our empirical evaluation, it has been found that, under various indicators, the proposed method’s ability to precisely forecast the charging load of electric vehicles has significantly improved. In fact, this allows for better guidance of charging user, planning, and expanding the power grid in consideration of electric vehicle charging loads.