Dynamic Evolution and Future Prediction of Land Use Patterns in the Arid Desert Region of Northwest China from 1990 to 2020

Abstract

Based on temporal and spatial dynamic data on land use in the arid desert region of Northwest China from 1990 to 2020, this study quantitatively analyzed and predicted future scenarios of the dynamic distribution pattern of land use using remote sensing technology. Unused land was the dominant landscape in the arid desert region of Northwest China over the past 30 years. The largest patch index of cultivated and construction land is continuously increasing, exhibiting a spatial aggregation trend. Grassland is the main vegetation type in the arid desert region of Northwest China, with the proportion of patches fluctuating between 27 and 28% during the 30-year study period. The proportion of patches in forests decreased yearly, whereas the proportion of patches in water areas relatively changed little. Meanwhile, the area of construction land is continuously increasing, accounting for 80% of the total increased area. According to the prediction made by the model, unused land and grassland will account for the majority of land use in 2040. Environmental construction in the arid desert region of Northwest China is expected to improve the robustness of the rational development and utilization of unused land and boost the protection and construction of forests and grasslands.