Driving forces and prediction of urban land use change based on the geodetector and CA-Markov model: a case study of Zhengzhou, China

Abstract

ABSTRACT Exploring urban land use change is a classical problem in urban geography. Taking Zhengzhou as an example, this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics and driving factors of urban land use change, and simulates the spatial pattern of urban land use in the future. The results of the study show that the land use types in Zhengzhou city were mainly farmland and construction land, the area of forestland, grassland, water area, and unused land was smaller, and the main land use change was the transformation of farmland into construction land. The accuracy check of the simulated land use type data in 2020 showed that the kappa coefficient reached 0.9445, which met the accuracy requirement. Then, according to the predicted land use data in 2025, it was found that the area of grassland, construction land, and water area may have decreased, and the area of farmland, forestland and unused land may have increased. Based on the driving force analysis of land use changes, its prediction results can provide an important reference basis for the formulation and planning of policies related to urban construction.