Dynamic evaluation of large‐scale rooftop photovoltaic penetration into the power distribution system

Abstract

The integration of distributed renewable energy with high penetration is a trend in future power and energy systems. Exploring the impacts of the retail-side pricing mechanism on renewable energy consumption is of great significance for sustainable generation development. Considering the diffusion process of distributed renewable energy in the power system, the authors introduce the logistic innovation diffusion model and propose a dynamic evaluation method to quantify the user-side rooftop photovoltaic diffusion capability with the retail pricing mechanism. First, a decision model with Ramsey pricing theory is improved to address the energy transactions between retailers and consumers, in which the ladder price with a two-part structure tariff model is applied. The market positive feedback model of rooftop photovoltaic installation capacity and electricity price level are analysed using a system dynamics methodology. Also, the system evolution model considering dynamic diffusion of rooftop photovoltaic affected by the tariff is established. Finally, the criterion for rooftop photovoltaic stable diffusion based on Lyapunov functions is developed and the installation capacity of rooftop photovoltaics in the studied system is determined. The case studies show the impacts of retail electricity prices on the stability and sensitivity of rooftop photovoltaic diffusion in the power system from the medium-to-long-term perspective.