Dynamic evaluation of China's atmospheric environmental pressure from 2008 to 2017: Trends and drivers

Abstract

Evaluating the pressure of atmospheric pollutant emissions on the atmospheric environment is crucial for effective pollution control and emission reduction policies. This study introduces a novel Atmospheric Environmental Pressure Index (AEPI) and employs a dynamic comprehensive method to evaluate China's Atmospheric Environmental Pressure (AEP) across 31 provinces from 2008 to 2017. The drivers of AEP were analyzed using a spatial panel data model, uncovering the integral role of pollution reduction policies, particularly the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, which led to a 25 % reduction in AEP during its enforcement. Our findings reveal significant spatial disparities in AEP, with higher levels in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta regions. The regression analysis identifies economic development, industrial structure, energy efficiency, environmental regulations, and urbanization as key influencing factors, though their impacts vary across different regions, suggesting the need for region-specific pollution control policies. Furthermore, the shift in the AEP gravity center from 2008 to 2017 indicated a southeastward movement, suggesting the necessity to focus air pollution control efforts on the southeast provinces. In conclusion, the AEPI developed in this study enables comparative analysis of AEP across different regions and facilitates the monitoring of long-term trends, which is valuable in guiding regional air pollution control in China.