Dynamic Bayesian Network for Predicting Tunnel-Collapse Risk in the Case of Incomplete Data

Abstract

Collapse is one of the most dangerous aspects of drilling–blasting construction in highway tunnels. To accurately control tunnel-collapse risk, a multistate dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) evaluation method for highway tunnel collapse based on parameter learning was proposed. First, by analyzing the risk mechanism of tunnel construction, the initial BN model was established based on the causal relationship between risk factors and construction risk in hydrogeological conditions, construction technology, and construction management. Next, the construction process was discretized into finite time slices. In consideration of the fuzzy uncertainty of nodes, node polymorphism was introduced to construct a multistate DBN. Then, 50 typical tunnel-collapse cases were taken as sample data, and the conditional probability distribution of initial BN was derived using parameter learning based on the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Using DBN reasoning and sensitivity analysis, the dynamic risk probability and the dominant factors of tunnel collapse were predicted. Finally, the DBN model was fed back with the measured cumulative values and velocity of the crown settlement, which updated the dynamic risk probability assessment results. In analyzing the collapse probability of Jinzhupa tunnel passing through the angular unconformity contact zone as an example, the results demonstrated that dynamic risk assessment results combined with monitoring data could better reflect the reality of construction contingencies, providing real-time risk management guidance.