Dynamic Bayesian game optimization method for multi-energy hub systems with incomplete load information

Abstract

The interconnection of Energy Hub can enhance the energy efficiency and reliability associated with the independent operation of energy systems. However, the traditional optimal scheduling methods are hard to tackle the situation with the incomplete load information and competitive constraints of a multi-Energy Hub. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian game optimization scheduling strategy considering incomplete information on users’ load-side demand. First, a load forecast error coefficient is introduced to handle the conditional probability problem caused by incomplete information through the Bayesian rule. The constraint relationship among multi-Energy Hub under the dynamic price mechanism is analyzed to meet the economic and environmental coordination goals under load uncertainty. Second, extending from Nash equilibrium to Bayes Nash equilibrium proves the existence and uniqueness of Nash equilibrium solutions in Bayesian game models. The decision game algorithm is used to optimize the scheduling of the multi-Energy Hub and subsequently ensure the autonomous scheduling of the system and solve the information barriers. Finally, an Integrated Energy System composed of three Energy Hubs was used to validate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed optimization method. Results show that under the Bayesian game decision, the multi-Energy Hub game model has reduced the total cost of the Integrated Energy System by 0.78 %, which can improve the economic benefit and address the environmental pollution problem.