Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)

Marjolijn Haasnoot,Andrew Warren,Jan H Kwakkel

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2_4

Marjolijn Haasnoot, Andrew Warren + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2_4

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Publication Date: Jan 1, 2019
Citations: 25	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Deltares, Delft University of Technology, Utrecht University

Abstract

Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) is a DMDU approach that explicitly includes decision making over time. The essence is proactive and dynamic planning in response to how the future actually unfolds. DAPP explores alternative sequences of decisions (adaptation pathways) for multiple futures and illuminates the path dependency of alternative strategies. It opens the decision space and helps to overcome policy paralysis due to deep uncertainty. There are different routes that can achieve the objectives under changing conditions (like ‘different roads leading to Rome’). Policy actions have an uncertain design life and might fail sooner or later to continue achieving objectives as the operating conditions change (i.e. they reach an adaptation tipping point (ATP)). Similarly, opportunity tipping points may occur. Multiple pathways are typically visualized in a metro map or decision tree, with time or changing conditions on one of the axes. DAPP supports the design of a dynamic adaptive strategy that includes initial actions, long-term options, and adaptation signals to identify when to implement the long-term options or revisit decisions.

Highlights

Nowadays, decision-makers face deep uncertainties about a myriad of external factors, such as climate change, population growth, new technologies, economic developments, and their impacts
This chapter describes an approach to planning under conditions of deep uncertainty called Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) (Haasnoot et al 2013), which recognizes that decisions are made over time in dynamic interaction with the system of concern, and cannot be considered independently of each other
The strengths of the DAPP method are that it facilitates decision making by offering intuitively understandable visualizations of policy options, and that it stimulates planners preparing the decisions to acknowledge uncertainties and to include adaptation over time explicitly in their plans—to explicitly think about the actions that may need to be taken to keep long-term options open, and the decisions that can be postponed until the situation becomes clearer

Summary

Introduction

Decision-makers face deep uncertainties about a myriad of external factors, such as climate change, population growth, new technologies, economic developments, and their impacts. This chapter describes an approach to planning under conditions of deep uncertainty called Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) (Haasnoot et al 2013), which recognizes that decisions are made over time in dynamic interaction with the system of concern, and cannot be considered independently of each other. It explicitly considers the sequencing and path dependencies of decisions over time. The chair of the Delta Programme summarized the main challenge of the Programme as follows: “One of the biggest challenges is dealing with uncertainties in the future climate, and in population, economy and society This requires a new way of planning, which we call adaptive delta planning. Originally developed for implementing climateresilient pathways for water management, it is a generic approach that can be applied to other long-term strategic planning problems under uncertain changing conditions

The DAPP Approach

Haasnoot et al Adaptation pathways Adaptation Tipping Points time condition

A DAPP Illustration

Large-scale dredging

Under What Conditions Is This Approach Useful?

Recent Advances

Links with Other DMDU Approaches

Findings

Future Challenges