Abstract
The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach has successfully been used to manage uncertainties in large infrastructure projects. However, the viability of the DAPP approach for spatial planning in smaller municipal settings is not clear. This paper examines opportunities and constraints of using adaptive pathways approaches to help small municipalities plan for future sea-level rise. The methodology was based on developing a simplified DAPP-approach, which was tested in a multiple experimental case study of spatial planning projects in three municipalities in Sweden. The results show that the approach promoted vulnerability-based thinking among the end-users and generated new ideas on how to manage the uncertain long-term impacts of future sea-level rise. However, the increased understanding of uncertainties was used to justify static, rather than adaptive, solutions. This somewhat surprising outcome can be explained by perceived legal constraints, lack of experience of adaptive pathways, and unwillingness to prescribe actions that could prove difficult to enforce in the future. More research is needed to further understand at what planning phases dynamic policy pathway approaches work best and how current barriers in legislation, practices, mind-set, organization, and resources can be overcome.
Highlights
Coastal cities around the world are increasingly becoming aware of the need to adapt and plan for rising sea levels over the foreseeable future
Potential threats from sea-level rise can be a new and complicated issue to decision makers. When faced with such decisions under ‘deep uncertainty’, it is commonly suggested that adaptive plans, which allow for changing pathways as the future unfolds, can provide guidance for better decision making [2,3,4]
The main research question of the present study is as follows: How can a dynamic adaptive pathway approach be implemented in current spatial planning to manage uncertainties in future sea-level rise in small- to medium-sized municipalities in Sweden? The question raised should have a broader interest in relation to other contexts because spatial planning has a legal framework and practices that limit the feasibility of new methods in most countries [19]
Summary
Coastal cities around the world are increasingly becoming aware of the need to adapt and plan for rising sea levels over the foreseeable future. The full application of these methods would require a significant effort from both process leaders and participants in terms of knowledge, time, and data processing Adaptive pathways approaches, such as DAPP and CRIDA, have great potential for improving planning under deep uncertainty, but they can be perceived as complex, difficult, and resource-demanding. The main research question of the present study is as follows: How can a dynamic adaptive pathway approach be implemented in current spatial planning to manage uncertainties in future sea-level rise in small- to medium-sized municipalities in Sweden? To examine the possibilities for using an adaptive pathways approach to help small municipalities to plan for future sea-level rise, the present study developed a simplified method, inspired by both DAPP and CRIDA.
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