Döviz Kurları ile BİST Turizm Endeksi Getirileri Arasındaki Volatilite Yayılım Etkisinin Belirlenmesi

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine the volatility spillover effects between exchange rates and BIST Tourism Index (XTRZM) returns by using econometric methods. In this concept, the volatility spillover between USD, EUR, JPY, and GBP as highly convertible currencies and RUB, the currency of Russia which is a country that sends large amounts of tourists to Turkey, and BIST XTRZM returns has been analyzed by Diagonal VECH-GARCH method which is one of the multivariate GARCH models. The findings show that volatility has constant effects on XTRZM and exchange rates and volatility clusters are formed. According to the results of Diagonal VECH-GARCH model, statistically significant volatility spillover effects between USD/TRY, EUR/TRY, GBP/TRY and RUB/TRY exchange rates and XTRZM Index returns have been determined. According to the results of the analysis, there is no statistically significant volatility spillover effect between JPY/TRY and XTRZM Index returns. The findings of the study indicate that volatility in XTRZM index returns increased especially during periods of volatility in exchange rates.