Duration and extent of solar X-ray flares and shortwave fadeouts likely to impact high frequency radio wave propagation based on an evaluation of absorption at 30 MHz

Abstract

High frequency (HF; 3–30 MHz) radio wave propagation can be impacted by absorption that results from enhanced photoionization in the dayside D-region following a solar X-ray flare. A database of >25,000 solar X-ray flares was evaluated to characterize the relationship between flare duration and the peak of the 0.1–0.8 nm solar X-ray flux. Expressions describing the mean and 90th percentile duration were developed. Based on these models, mean durations of 13, 18, 27, and 39 min and 90th percentile durations of 30, 48, 77, and 123 min are expected for C1, M1, X1 and X10 solar X-ray flares, respectively. A probability distribution of flare durations was developed to describe the probability of flare duration lasting 0–15, 15–30, 30–45, 45–60, 60–90, >90 min. In addition to flare duration, the duration of the expected impact to HF radio waves was evaluated. By considering examples where HF radio wave propagation in the 5–15 MHz range was impacted by space weather, a 0.5 dB threshold at 30 MHz was observed in samples of riometer data. Absorption modelled at 1-min increments from 1986 to 2017 was evaluated to create a probability distribution of impact duration, defined as the length of time the modelled 30 MHz absorption exceeded 0.5 dB during a single event. Modelled absorption was further evaluated to demonstrate the geographic extent of enhanced absorption, and to determine the minimum solar X-ray flux required to exceed the 0.5 dB impact threshold at a given latitude as a function of solar zenith angle and time of year. The results of this paper provide a better understanding of the impact of solar X-ray flares on high frequency radio wave propagation and aid in the development of tools and services for mitigating space weather impacts to systems that rely on HF radio wave propagation.