Dryness/wetness variations in ten large river basins of China during the first 50 years of the 21st century

Abstract

This study investigated future changes of dryness/wetness in ten large river basins: the Songhuajiang River basin, the Liaohe River basin, the Haihe River basin, the Yellow River basin, the Huaihe River basin, the Yangtze River basin, the Pearl River basin, the Southeast River basins, the Southwest River basins and the Northwest Inland River basins across China during the first 50 years of the 21st century. The study was carried out according to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which is calculated by monthly precipitation data of ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Three anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission scenarios, SRES-A2, SRES-A1B and SRES-B1 have been considered. The frequency of dry/wet periods in these river basins was calculated and the trend detected by the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test. The results reveal that there is a trend towards drier conditions from northeast to southwest China in scenario A2 and a similar spatial distribution pattern in scenario A1B and B1. Areas with a high frequency of drought are detected under all three scenarios. In the next half century, the Haihe River basin, northeast China, is expected to show a significant trend towards drier conditions, which pass the 95% confidence level in scenario A2. In the Yellow River basin, the Huaihe River basin, the Yangtze River basin and the Pearl River basin, an obvious trend towards wetter conditions has been detected in scenario A1B. The Songhuajiang River basin, the Haihe River basin, the Yellow River basin and the Huaihe River basin show a trend towards wetter conditions, which passed the 90% confidence level in scenario B1. The future dryness/wetness frequency situation is complex in the ten large river basins.